After two weeks of push-up, the domestic polyether market gradually became more and more cold, reaching an inflection point on December 18. Taking Shandong Province as an example, the ex-factory price of ordinary soft foam in the region was once pushed to 11700-11900 yuan/ton. After that, the price was loose. As of the press, the local soft foam water exchange price is 11600-11750 yuan/ton, which is a dark state. However, the market is expected to gradually heat up.
At the beginning of December, with the decline of raw material PO, the price of polyether also declined. On December 5, the average price of soft-bubble water in Shandong Province fell to 10,450 yuan/ton, hitting the low point of the year. The downstream sponge factory concentrated on procurement, the factory inventory was passed on, and PO increased momentum, paving the way for the low-level rebound of polyether. But since then PO has been rising, and the polyether market is entering a passive follow-up mode.
Although the current pre-factory orders have been delivered, the new orders have been difficult to follow up after the price increase, and the market has almost no upswing. At present, downstream users still rely on stocks before digestion. Since the price is low during the year and the downstream stocking cycle is more than 20 days, the next purchase node or after the New Year's Day.
From the perspective of profit, during the period from December 5 to December 13, the overall profit of the polyether plant was acceptable with PO and polyether rising, with an average of around RMB 500/ton, but then follow up on the new order. Insufficient circumstances, it is difficult to follow the PO rally, resulting in a gradual decline in profit margins. At present, POs in Shandong Province are re-exporting manufacturers at around 11,200 yuan / ton, roughly estimating the cost of polyether at 11,700 yuan / ton, so the profit gradually turned negative.
The decline in polyether prices in the second half of this month has become a high probability event, but the extent of the specific decline remains to be seen in the PO trend and downstream procurement dynamics. In fact, the current PO has already appeared tired.
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